UMass Minutemen at Buffalo Bulls
All UMass Minutemen predictions · All Buffalo Bulls predictions
College Football · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 1:02 PM · Final: 18-24
The model's call
Buffalo Bulls to win
Model confidence 68.5%
Books consensus 68.5%
Result Buffalo Bulls won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus
of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself
in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not
an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | UMass Minutemen | Buffalo Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +200 | -235 |
| BetRivers | +200 | -265 |
| DraftKings | +205 | -250 |
| ESPN BET | +200 | -240 |
| FanDuel | +220 | -275 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +200 | -260 |
| Novig | +217 | -223 |
| Caesars | +205 | -250 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
Spread · closing
Buffalo −6.5
priced 50.4% to cover · 7 books
opened Buffalo −7.5
UMass Minutemen covered +6.5
Total · closing
O/U 43.5
priced 49.9% over · 4 books, 3 on another number
opened 42.5
Under 43.5 (42 scored)
| Spread by book | UMass | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +6.5 -105 | −6.5 -112 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -110 | −6.5 -113 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -108 | −6.5 -112 |
| ESPN BET | +6.5 -110 | −6.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -102 | −6.5 -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -110 | −6.5 -110 |
| Caesars | +6.5 -108 | −6.5 -112 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 43.5 -108 | 43.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | 42.5 -113 | 42.5 -110 |
| DraftKings | 43.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 |
| ESPN BET | 43.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 42.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 42.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 43.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 |
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