UNLV Rebels at Air Force Falcons
All UNLV Rebels predictions · All Air Force Falcons predictions
College Football · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 3:32 PM · Final: 31-41
The model's call
UNLV Rebels to win
Model confidence 52.4%
Books consensus 52.4%
Result Air Force Falcons won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus
of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself
in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not
an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | UNLV Rebels | Air Force Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 |
| BetRivers | -118 | -105 |
| DraftKings | -122 | +102 |
| ESPN BET | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -122 | +102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -120 | -105 |
| Novig | -111 | +108 |
| Caesars | -121 | +102 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
Spread · closing
UNLV −1.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 5 books, 2 on another number
opened Air Force −1.5
Air Force Falcons covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 48.5
priced 50.0% over · 4 books, 3 on another number
Over 48.5 (72 scored)
| Spread by book | UNLV | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 -110 | +1.5 -108 |
| BetRivers | −1 -112 | +1 -112 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 -110 | +1.5 -110 |
| ESPN BET | −2.5 +100 | +2.5 -120 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 -112 | +1.5 -108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 -105 | +1.5 -115 |
| Caesars | −1.5 -105 | +1.5 -115 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 49.5 -105 | 49.5 -112 |
| BetRivers | 48.5 -112 | 48.5 -112 |
| DraftKings | 49.5 -105 | 49.5 -115 |
| ESPN BET | 48.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 48.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 48.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 49 -110 | 49 -109 |
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