Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan Wolverines
All Penn State Nittany Lions predictions · All Michigan Wolverines predictions
College Football · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 3:46 PM · Final: 18-21
The model's call
Michigan Wolverines to win
Model confidence 67.0%
Books consensus 67.0%
Result Michigan Wolverines won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus
of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself
in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not
an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Penn State Nittany Lions | Michigan Wolverines |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +190 | -235 |
| BetRivers | +190 | -265 |
| DraftKings | +190 | -230 |
| ESPN BET | +180 | -215 |
| FanDuel | +190 | -235 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +190 | -230 |
| Novig | +194 | -203 |
| Caesars | +191 | -235 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
Spread · closing
Michigan −6.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 4 books, 3 on another number
Penn State Nittany Lions covered +6.5
Total · closing
O/U 43.5
priced 50.0% over · 6 books, 1 on another number
opened 42.5
Under 43.5 (39 scored)
| Spread by book | Penn State | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +6 -110 | −6 -108 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -114 | −6.5 -108 |
| DraftKings | +6 -108 | −6 -112 |
| ESPN BET | +6.5 -115 | −6.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -115 | −6.5 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -120 | −6.5 +100 |
| Caesars | +6 -109 | −6 -110 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 43.5 -112 | 43.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 43.5 -112 | 43.5 -112 |
| DraftKings | 43.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 |
| ESPN BET | 43.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 44.5 -106 | 44.5 -114 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 43.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 43.5 -112 | 43.5 -108 |
Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts
involve risk; this is not investment advice.