Arkansas State Red Wolves at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
All Arkansas State Red Wolves predictions · All Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles predictions
College Football · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 7:02 PM · Final: 23-13
The model's call
Arkansas State Red Wolves to win
Model confidence 66.0%
Books consensus 66.0%
Result Arkansas State Red Wolves won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus
of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself
in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not
an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -210 | +175 |
| BetRivers | -245 | +190 |
| DraftKings | -218 | +180 |
| ESPN BET | -225 | +190 |
| FanDuel | -205 | +168 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -240 | +190 |
| Novig | -203 | +194 |
| Caesars | -215 | +175 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
Spread · closing
Arkansas State −5.5
priced 50.4% to cover · 5 books, 2 on another number
opened Arkansas State −6.5
Arkansas State Red Wolves covered −5.5
Total · closing
O/U 61.5
priced 50.5% over · 7 books
opened 62.5
Under 61.5 (36 scored)
| Spread by book | Arkansas State | Southern Mississippi |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −5.5 -108 | +5.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | −6.5 -110 | +6.5 -113 |
| DraftKings | −5.5 -112 | +5.5 -108 |
| ESPN BET | −5.5 -115 | +5.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | −5.5 -110 | +5.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −6.5 -110 | +6.5 -110 |
| Caesars | −5.5 -112 | +5.5 -108 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 61.5 -112 | 61.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 61.5 -114 | 61.5 -109 |
| DraftKings | 61.5 -115 | 61.5 -105 |
| ESPN BET | 61.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 61.5 -114 | 61.5 -106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 61.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 61.5 -112 | 61.5 -108 |
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