TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears
All TCU Horned Frogs predictions · All Baylor Bears predictions
College Football · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 7:10 PM · Final: 17-6
The model's call
Baylor Bears to win
Model confidence 61.6%
Books consensus 61.6%
Result TCU Horned Frogs won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus
of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself
in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not
an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | TCU Horned Frogs | Baylor Bears |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +145 | -175 |
| BetRivers | +145 | -190 |
| DraftKings | +150 | -180 |
| ESPN BET | +155 | -185 |
| FanDuel | +136 | -164 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +145 | -185 |
| Novig | +160 | -163 |
| Caesars | +152 | -182 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
Spread · closing
Baylor −3.5
priced 50.3% to cover · 6 books, 1 on another number
opened Baylor −5.5
TCU Horned Frogs covered +3.5
Total · closing
O/U 50.5
priced 50.0% over · 7 books
opened 48.5
Under 50.5 (23 scored)
| Spread by book | TCU | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +3.5 -110 | −3.5 -108 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -112 | −3.5 -118 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -110 | −3.5 -110 |
| ESPN BET | +4.5 -115 | −4.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -114 | −3.5 -106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -105 | −3.5 -120 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -107 | −3.5 -113 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 50.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 |
| BetRivers | 50.5 -112 | 50.5 -112 |
| DraftKings | 50.5 -108 | 50.5 -112 |
| ESPN BET | 50.5 -105 | 50.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | 50.5 -115 | 50.5 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 50.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 50.5 -109 | 50.5 -110 |
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