Fresno State Bulldogs at San Diego State Aztecs
All Fresno State Bulldogs predictions · All San Diego State Aztecs predictions
College Football · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 10:30 PM · Final: 23-26
The model's call
Fresno State Bulldogs to win
Model confidence 71.2%
Books consensus 71.2%
Result San Diego State Aztecs won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus
of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself
in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not
an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Fresno State Bulldogs | San Diego State Aztecs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -275 | +225 |
| BetRivers | -375 | +280 |
| DraftKings | -285 | +230 |
| ESPN BET | -290 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -260 | +210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -275 | +240 |
| Novig | -257 | +251 |
| Caesars | -280 | +225 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
Spread · closing
Fresno State −6.5
priced 52.2% to cover · 3 books, 4 on another number
opened Fresno State −7.5
San Diego State Aztecs covered +6.5
Total · closing
O/U 46.5
priced 50.0% over · 5 books, 2 on another number
opened 45.5
Over 46.5 (49 scored)
| Spread by book | Fresno State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −7 -108 | +7 -110 |
| BetRivers | −7.5 -112 | +7.5 -112 |
| DraftKings | −7 -110 | +7 -110 |
| ESPN BET | −6.5 -120 | +6.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | −6.5 -122 | +6.5 +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −6.5 -120 | +6.5 +100 |
| Caesars | −7 -113 | +7 -107 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 46.5 -110 | 46.5 -108 |
| BetRivers | 45.5 -114 | 45.5 -109 |
| DraftKings | 46.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 |
| ESPN BET | 46.5 -115 | 46.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 46.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 45.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 46.5 -107 | 46.5 -113 |
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