New Mexico Lobos at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
All New Mexico Lobos predictions · All Hawaii Rainbow Warriors predictions
College Football · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 10:35 PM · Final: 21-10
The model's call
New Mexico Lobos to win
Model confidence 84.3%
Books consensus 84.3%
Result New Mexico Lobos won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus
of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself
in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not
an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New Mexico Lobos | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -700 | +525 |
| BetRivers | -910 | +540 |
| DraftKings | -675 | +490 |
| ESPN BET | -650 | +425 |
| FanDuel | -720 | +500 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -850 | +550 |
| Novig | -567 | +545 |
| Caesars | -675 | +475 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
Spread · closing
New Mexico −14.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 7 books
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors covered +14.5
Total · closing
O/U 45.5
priced 51.1% over · 4 books, 3 on another number
opened 44.5
Under 45.5 (31 scored)
| Spread by book | New Mexico | Hawaii |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −14.5 -108 | +14.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | −14.5 -113 | +14.5 -110 |
| DraftKings | −14.5 -112 | +14.5 -108 |
| ESPN BET | −14.5 -110 | +14.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | −14.5 -108 | +14.5 -112 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −14.5 -110 | +14.5 -110 |
| Caesars | −14.5 -112 | +14.5 -108 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 46.5 -110 | 46.5 -108 |
| BetRivers | 45.5 -117 | 45.5 -107 |
| DraftKings | 46.5 -112 | 46.5 -108 |
| ESPN BET | 45.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 45.5 -115 | 45.5 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 45.5 -115 | 45.5 -105 |
| Caesars | 46.5 -106 | 46.5 -114 |
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