Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Anaheim Ducks at New York Rangers

All Anaheim Ducks predictions · All New York Rangers predictions

NHL · Monday, October 19, 2026 · 7:10 PM · Final: 2-5

The model's call
New York Rangers to win
Model confidence 58.0%
Books consensus 58.0%
Result New York Rangers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Anaheim DucksNew York Rangers
BetMGM +130 -155
BetRivers +130 -157
DraftKings +130 -155
ESPN BET +130 -150
Fanatics +125 -150
FanDuel +120 -144
Hard Rock Bet +125 -160
Novig +135 -138
Caesars +129 -152

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Rangers −1.5
priced 36.6% to cover · 7 books
New York Rangers covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 49.8% over · 8 books
Over 6.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book DucksRangers
BetMGM +1.5 -190 −1.5 +155
BetRivers +1.5 -200 −1.5 +160
DraftKings +1.5 -192 −1.5 +160
ESPN BET +1.5 -200 −1.5 +165
Fanatics +1.5 -200 −1.5 +160
FanDuel +1.5 -205 −1.5 +164
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -210 −1.5 +160
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
BetRivers 6.5 -103 6.5 -122
DraftKings 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
ESPN BET 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Fanatics 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
FanDuel 6.5 -114 6.5 -106
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Caesars 6.5 -109 6.5 -113

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Anaheim DucksNew York Rangers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.0% 58.0%
Best book price incl. vig 42.6% 58.0%
Kalshi contract price 41.5% 58.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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