Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers

All Colorado Avalanche predictions · All Philadelphia Flyers predictions

NHL · Monday, October 19, 2026 · 7:10 PM · Final: 2-3

The model's call
Colorado Avalanche to win
Model confidence 68.2%
Books consensus 68.2%
Result Philadelphia Flyers won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Colorado AvalanchePhiladelphia Flyers
BetMGM -250 +200
BetRivers -250 +205
DraftKings -250 +205
ESPN BET -225 +190
Fanatics -245 +200
FanDuel -240 +195
Hard Rock Bet -250 +180
Novig -223 +217
Caesars -250 +200

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Avalanche −1.5
priced 46.9% to cover · 7 books
Philadelphia Flyers covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 46.2% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
Under 6.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book AvalancheFlyers
BetMGM −1.5 +100 +1.5 -120
BetRivers −1.5 +102 +1.5 -127
DraftKings −1.5 +105 +1.5 -125
ESPN BET −1.5 +105 +1.5 -125
Fanatics −1.5 +100 +1.5 -120
FanDuel −1.5 +100 +1.5 -122
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +105 +1.5 -130
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -115 6 -105
BetRivers 6.5 +106 6.5 -130
DraftKings 6.5 +114 6.5 -135
ESPN BET 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Fanatics 6.5 +115 6.5 -140
FanDuel 5.5 -140 5.5 +114
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Caesars 6 -113 6 -109

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Colorado AvalanchePhiladelphia Flyers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 68.2% 31.8%
Best book price incl. vig 69.0% 31.5%
Kalshi contract price 69.5% 30.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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