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Pittsburgh Penguins at Utah Mammoth

All Pittsburgh Penguins predictions · All Utah Mammoth predictions

NHL · Monday, October 19, 2026 · 9:10 PM · Final: 4-5

The model's call
Utah Mammoth to win
Model confidence 62.5%
Books consensus 62.5%
Result Utah Mammoth won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Pittsburgh PenguinsUtah Mammoth
BetMGM +155 -190
BetRivers +160 -195
DraftKings +154 -185
ESPN BET +150 -175
Fanatics +155 -190
FanDuel +155 -188
Hard Rock Bet +140 -180
Novig +163 -167
Caesars +155 -190

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Mammoth −1.5
priced 41.0% to cover · 7 books
Pittsburgh Penguins covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 55.5% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
Over 6.5 (9 scored)
Spread by book PenguinsMammoth
BetMGM +1.5 -155 −1.5 +130
BetRivers +1.5 -159 −1.5 +128
DraftKings +1.5 -162 −1.5 +136
ESPN BET +1.5 -160 −1.5 +135
Fanatics +1.5 -165 −1.5 +135
FanDuel +1.5 -164 −1.5 +132
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -165 −1.5 +130
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7 +110 7 -130
BetRivers 6.5 -137 6.5 +110
DraftKings 6.5 -142 6.5 +120
ESPN BET 6.5 -135 6.5 +115
Fanatics 6.5 -140 6.5 +115
FanDuel 6.5 -140 6.5 +114
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -130 6.5 +105
Caesars 6.5 -150 6.5 +120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Pittsburgh PenguinsUtah Mammoth
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 37.5% 62.5%
Best book price incl. vig 38.0% 62.5%
Kalshi contract price 37.5% 62.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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