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Anaheim Ducks at New York Islanders

All Anaheim Ducks predictions · All New York Islanders predictions

NHL · Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · 7:08 PM · Final: 2-3

The model's call
New York Islanders to win
Model confidence 58.3%
Books consensus 58.3%
Result New York Islanders won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Anaheim DucksNew York Islanders
BetMGM +130 -155
BetRivers +132 -157
DraftKings +130 -155
ESPN BET +120 -140
Fanatics +130 -155
FanDuel +126 -152
Hard Rock Bet +115 -150
Novig +141 -144
Caesars +129 -152

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Islanders −1.5
priced 36.1% to cover · 7 books
Anaheim Ducks covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 53.5% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 6.5
Under 5.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book DucksIslanders
BetMGM +1.5 -200 −1.5 +165
BetRivers +1.5 -205 −1.5 +163
DraftKings +1.5 -192 −1.5 +160
ESPN BET +1.5 -215 −1.5 +175
Fanatics +1.5 -200 −1.5 +160
FanDuel +1.5 -205 −1.5 +160
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -230 −1.5 +175
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -102 6 -118
BetRivers 5.5 -122 5.5 -103
DraftKings 5.5 -130 5.5 +110
ESPN BET 5.5 -130 5.5 +110
Fanatics 5.5 -125 5.5 +105
FanDuel 5.5 -128 5.5 +104
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -130 5.5 +105
Caesars 6 -103 6 -120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Anaheim DucksNew York Islanders
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 41.7% 58.3%
Best book price incl. vig 41.5% 58.3%
Kalshi contract price 40.9% 59.1%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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