Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Kings at Washington Capitals

All Los Angeles Kings predictions · All Washington Capitals predictions

NHL · Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · 7:08 PM · Final: 5-2

The model's call
Washington Capitals to win
Model confidence 58.9%
Books consensus 58.9%
Result Los Angeles Kings won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles KingsWashington Capitals
BetMGM +135 -160
BetRivers +133 -159
DraftKings +136 -162
ESPN BET +130 -150
Fanatics +130 -155
FanDuel +130 -156
Hard Rock Bet +125 -160
Novig +147 -150
Caesars +136 -162

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Capitals −1.5
priced 36.6% to cover · 7 books
Los Angeles Kings covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 51.1% over · 8 books
Over 5.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book KingsCapitals
BetMGM +1.5 -190 −1.5 +155
BetRivers +1.5 -205 −1.5 +160
DraftKings +1.5 -192 −1.5 +160
ESPN BET +1.5 -210 −1.5 +170
Fanatics +1.5 -200 −1.5 +160
FanDuel +1.5 -192 −1.5 +160
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -210 −1.5 +160
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
BetRivers 5.5 -124 5.5 +100
DraftKings 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
ESPN BET 5.5 -110 5.5 -110
Fanatics 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
FanDuel 5.5 -115 5.5 -104
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -110 5.5 -110
Caesars 5.5 -121 5.5 -103

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles KingsWashington Capitals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 41.1% 58.9%
Best book price incl. vig 40.5% 60.0%
Kalshi contract price 40.5% 59.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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