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San Jose Sharks at Montréal Canadiens

All San Jose Sharks predictions · All Montréal Canadiens predictions

NHL · Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · 7:08 PM · Final: 4-3

The model's call
Montréal Canadiens to win
Model confidence 66.4%
Books consensus 66.4%
Result San Jose Sharks won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book San Jose SharksMontréal Canadiens
BetMGM +180 -220
BetRivers +188 -230
DraftKings +185 -225
ESPN BET +170 -200
Fanatics +185 -225
FanDuel +184 -225
Hard Rock Bet +165 -220
Novig +199 -203
Caesars +186 -225

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Canadiens −1.5
priced 44.8% to cover · 7 books
San Jose Sharks covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 52.9% over · 8 books
Over 6.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book SharksCanadiens
BetMGM +1.5 -130 −1.5 +110
BetRivers +1.5 -139 −1.5 +112
DraftKings +1.5 -130 −1.5 +110
ESPN BET +1.5 -145 −1.5 +120
Fanatics +1.5 -135 −1.5 +110
FanDuel +1.5 -140 −1.5 +112
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -145 −1.5 +115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -125 6.5 +105
BetRivers 6.5 -118 6.5 -106
DraftKings 6.5 -122 6.5 +102
ESPN BET 6.5 -135 6.5 +115
Fanatics 6.5 -120 6.5 +100
FanDuel 6.5 -122 6.5 +100
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -130 6.5 +105
Caesars 6.5 -128 6.5 +105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue San Jose SharksMontréal Canadiens
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 33.6% 66.4%
Best book price incl. vig 33.4% 66.7%
Kalshi contract price 33.5% 66.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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