Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Winnipeg Jets at St Louis Blues

All Winnipeg Jets predictions · All St Louis Blues predictions

NHL · Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · 8:08 PM · Final: 1-2

The model's call
St Louis Blues to win
Model confidence 55.3%
Books consensus 55.3%
Result St Louis Blues won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Winnipeg JetsSt Louis Blues
BetMGM +115 -135
BetRivers +112 -134
DraftKings +114 -135
ESPN BET +110 -130
Fanatics +115 -140
FanDuel +118 -142
Hard Rock Bet +105 -135
Novig +125 -127
Caesars +117 -137

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Blues −1.5
priced 33.3% to cover · 7 books
Winnipeg Jets covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 52.9% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
Under 5.5 (3 scored)
Spread by book JetsBlues
BetMGM +1.5 -225 −1.5 +185
BetRivers +1.5 -245 −1.5 +190
DraftKings +1.5 -225 −1.5 +185
ESPN BET +1.5 -250 −1.5 +200
Fanatics +1.5 -235 −1.5 +185
FanDuel +1.5 -210 −1.5 +168
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -250 −1.5 +180
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 +100 6 -120
BetRivers 5.5 -125 5.5 +102
DraftKings 5.5 -125 5.5 +105
ESPN BET 5.5 -110 5.5 -110
Fanatics 5.5 -125 5.5 +105
FanDuel 5.5 -128 5.5 +104
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -110 5.5 -110
Caesars 5.5 -125 5.5 +102

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Winnipeg JetsSt Louis Blues
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 44.7% 55.3%
Best book price incl. vig 44.4% 55.9%
Kalshi contract price 44.5% 55.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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