Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Minnesota Wild at Edmonton Oilers

All Minnesota Wild predictions · All Edmonton Oilers predictions

NHL · Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · 9:09 PM · Final: 3-4

The model's call
Edmonton Oilers to win
Model confidence 53.2%
Books consensus 53.2%
Result Edmonton Oilers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Minnesota WildEdmonton Oilers
BetMGM +105 -125
BetRivers +112 -134
DraftKings +105 -125
ESPN BET +105 -125
Fanatics +105 -125
FanDuel +105 -126
Hard Rock Bet -105 -125
Novig +108 -113
Caesars +107 -125

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Oilers −1.5
priced 32.8% to cover · 7 books
Minnesota Wild covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 47.8% over · 8 books
Over 6.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book WildOilers
BetMGM +1.5 -225 −1.5 +185
BetRivers +1.5 -235 −1.5 +185
DraftKings +1.5 -238 −1.5 +195
ESPN BET +1.5 -260 −1.5 +210
Fanatics +1.5 -240 −1.5 +190
FanDuel +1.5 -235 −1.5 +186
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -300 −1.5 +200
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
BetRivers 6.5 +100 6.5 -124
DraftKings 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
ESPN BET 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Fanatics 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
FanDuel 6.5 +102 6.5 -124
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Caesars 6.5 -104 6.5 -120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Minnesota WildEdmonton Oilers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 46.8% 53.2%
Best book price incl. vig 47.2% 53.1%
Kalshi contract price 47.5% 52.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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