Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Detroit Red Wings at Seattle Kraken

All Detroit Red Wings predictions · All Seattle Kraken predictions

NHL · Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · 9:48 PM · Final: 3-4

The model's call
Detroit Red Wings to win
Model confidence 52.6%
Books consensus 52.6%
Result Seattle Kraken won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Detroit Red WingsSeattle Kraken
BetMGM -120 +100
BetRivers -118 +100
DraftKings -122 +102
ESPN BET -125 +105
Fanatics -125 +105
FanDuel -120 +100
Hard Rock Bet -120 +100
Novig -115 +113
Caesars -125 +107

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Red Wings −1.5
priced 31.9% to cover · 6 books, 1 on another number
opened Kraken −1.5
Seattle Kraken covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 48.9% over · 8 books
Over 6.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book Red WingsKraken
BetMGM −1.5 +200 +1.5 -250
BetRivers +1.5 -315 −1.5 +240
DraftKings −1.5 +200 +1.5 -245
ESPN BET −1.5 +190 +1.5 -235
Fanatics −1.5 +200 +1.5 -255
FanDuel −1.5 +205 +1.5 -260
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +180 +1.5 -250
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
BetRivers 6.5 -107 6.5 -117
DraftKings 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
ESPN BET 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Fanatics 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
FanDuel 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Caesars 6.5 -115 6.5 -107

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Detroit Red WingsSeattle Kraken
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 52.6% 47.4%
Best book price incl. vig 53.5% 46.9%
Kalshi contract price 53.0% 47.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record