Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators

All Florida Panthers predictions · All Ottawa Senators predictions

NHL · Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · 7:46 PM · Final: 1-5

The model's call
Ottawa Senators to win
Model confidence 50.3%
Books consensus 50.3%
Result Ottawa Senators won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Florida PanthersOttawa Senators
BetMGM -110 -110
BetRivers -103 -117
DraftKings -110 -110
ESPN BET +100 -120
Fanatics -110 -110
FanDuel -108 -111
Hard Rock Bet -110 -120
Novig +100 -102
Caesars -106 -112

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Senators −1.5
priced 29.7% to cover · 7 books
opened Panthers −1.5
Ottawa Senators covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 50.0% over · 8 books
Over 5.5 (6 scored)
Spread by book PanthersSenators
BetMGM +1.5 -275 −1.5 +220
BetRivers +1.5 -286 −1.5 +220
DraftKings +1.5 -278 −1.5 +225
ESPN BET +1.5 -325 −1.5 +220
Fanatics +1.5 -285 −1.5 +220
FanDuel +1.5 -280 −1.5 +220
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -300 −1.5 +200
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 5.5 -110 5.5 -110
BetRivers 5.5 +100 5.5 -122
DraftKings 5.5 -110 5.5 -110
ESPN BET 5.5 -110 5.5 -110
Fanatics 5.5 -110 5.5 -110
FanDuel 5.5 -112 5.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -110 5.5 -110
Caesars 5.5 -113 5.5 -109

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Florida PanthersOttawa Senators
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 49.7% 50.3%
Best book price incl. vig 50.0% 50.5%
Kalshi contract price 49.0% 51.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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