Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Anaheim Ducks at New Jersey Devils

All Anaheim Ducks predictions · All New Jersey Devils predictions

NHL · Thursday, October 22, 2026 · 7:08 PM · Final: 1-4

The model's call
New Jersey Devils to win
Model confidence 65.7%
Books consensus 65.7%
Result New Jersey Devils won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Anaheim DucksNew Jersey Devils
BetMGM +180 -220
BetRivers +175 -215
DraftKings +180 -218
ESPN BET +175 -210
Fanatics +180 -220
FanDuel +180 -220
Hard Rock Bet +165 -220
Novig +199 -203
Caesars +178 -213

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Devils −1.5
priced 44.7% to cover · 7 books
New Jersey Devils covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 53.1% over · 8 books
Under 6.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book DucksDevils
BetMGM +1.5 -135 −1.5 +115
BetRivers +1.5 -148 −1.5 +118
DraftKings +1.5 -135 −1.5 +114
ESPN BET +1.5 -135 −1.5 +115
Fanatics +1.5 -135 −1.5 +110
FanDuel +1.5 -138 −1.5 +110
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -145 −1.5 +115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -130 6.5 +110
BetRivers 6.5 -122 6.5 -103
DraftKings 6.5 -125 6.5 +105
ESPN BET 6.5 -120 6.5 +100
Fanatics 6.5 -125 6.5 +105
FanDuel 6.5 -132 6.5 +108
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -115 6.5 -105
Caesars 6.5 -125 6.5 +103

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Anaheim DucksNew Jersey Devils
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 34.3% 65.7%
Best book price incl. vig 33.4% 67.0%
Kalshi contract price 33.5% 66.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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