Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Florida Panthers at Pittsburgh Penguins

All Florida Panthers predictions · All Pittsburgh Penguins predictions

NHL · Thursday, October 22, 2026 · 7:08 PM · Final: 0-4

The model's call
Florida Panthers to win
Model confidence 50.3%
Books consensus 50.3%
Result Pittsburgh Penguins won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Florida PanthersPittsburgh Penguins
BetMGM -115 -105
BetRivers -110 -108
DraftKings -112 -108
ESPN BET -115 -105
Fanatics -110 -110
FanDuel -114 -105
Hard Rock Bet -115 -115
Novig +100 -102
Caesars -110 -107

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Panthers −1.5
priced 31.7% to cover · 5 books, 2 on another number
opened Penguins −1.5
Pittsburgh Penguins covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 53.5% over · 8 books
Under 6.5 (4 scored)
Spread by book PanthersPenguins
BetMGM −1.5 +200 +1.5 -250
BetRivers +1.5 -295 −1.5 +225
DraftKings +1.5 -270 −1.5 +220
ESPN BET −1.5 +215 +1.5 -290
Fanatics −1.5 +200 +1.5 -255
FanDuel −1.5 +198 +1.5 -250
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +200 +1.5 -300
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -130 6.5 +110
BetRivers 6.5 -117 6.5 -107
DraftKings 6.5 -125 6.5 +105
ESPN BET 6.5 -130 6.5 +110
Fanatics 6.5 -125 6.5 +105
FanDuel 6.5 -128 6.5 +104
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -130 6.5 +105
Caesars 6.5 -134 6.5 +109

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Florida PanthersPittsburgh Penguins
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 50.3% 49.7%
Best book price incl. vig 50.0% 50.5%
Kalshi contract price 49.5% 50.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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