Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Kings at New York Islanders

All Los Angeles Kings predictions · All New York Islanders predictions

NHL · Thursday, October 22, 2026 · 7:38 PM · Final: 3-2

The model's call
Los Angeles Kings to win
Model confidence 50.9%
Books consensus 50.9%
Result Los Angeles Kings won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles KingsNew York Islanders
BetMGM -110 -110
BetRivers -113 -105
DraftKings -115 -105
ESPN BET -115 -105
Fanatics -115 -105
FanDuel -113 -106
Hard Rock Bet -120 -110
Novig -104 +102
Caesars -115 -109

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Kings −1.5
priced 29.2% to cover · 6 books, 1 on another number
opened Islanders −1.5
New York Islanders covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 49.6% over · 8 books
Under 5.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book KingsIslanders
BetMGM +1.5 -285 −1.5 +210
BetRivers −1.5 +225 +1.5 -295
DraftKings −1.5 +230 +1.5 -285
ESPN BET −1.5 +220 +1.5 -325
Fanatics −1.5 +220 +1.5 -285
FanDuel −1.5 +225 +1.5 -290
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +210 +1.5 -325
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
BetRivers 5.5 -113 5.5 -110
DraftKings 5.5 -105 5.5 -115
ESPN BET 5.5 -110 5.5 -110
Fanatics 5.5 -105 5.5 -115
FanDuel 5.5 -102 5.5 -120
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -110 5.5 -110
Caesars 5.5 -107 5.5 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles KingsNew York Islanders
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 50.9% 49.1%
Best book price incl. vig 51.0% 49.5%
Kalshi contract price 51.0% 49.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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