Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Vegas Golden Knights at St Louis Blues

All Vegas Golden Knights predictions · All St Louis Blues predictions

NHL · Thursday, October 22, 2026 · 8:08 PM · Final: 2-6

The model's call
Vegas Golden Knights to win
Model confidence 52.2%
Books consensus 52.2%
Result St Louis Blues won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Vegas Golden KnightsSt Louis Blues
BetMGM -130 +110
BetRivers -134 +112
DraftKings -125 +105
ESPN BET -115 -105
Fanatics -120 +100
FanDuel -115 -104
Hard Rock Bet -120 -110
Novig -104 +102
Caesars -130 +107

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Golden Knights −1.5
priced 31.8% to cover · 6 books, 1 on another number
St Louis Blues covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 54.1% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
Over 5.5 (8 scored)
Spread by book Golden KnightsBlues
BetMGM −1.5 +190 +1.5 -235
BetRivers −1.5 +185 +1.5 -235
DraftKings −1.5 +200 +1.5 -245
ESPN BET −1.5 +220 +1.5 -325
Fanatics −1.5 +200 +1.5 -255
FanDuel −1.5 +210 +1.5 -265
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -325 −1.5 +210
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -115 6 -105
BetRivers 5.5 -132 5.5 +107
DraftKings 5.5 -135 5.5 +114
ESPN BET 5.5 -125 5.5 +105
Fanatics 5.5 -135 5.5 +110
FanDuel 6.5 +114 6.5 -140
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -130 5.5 +105
Caesars 6 -111 6 -112

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Vegas Golden KnightsSt Louis Blues
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 52.2% 47.8%
Best book price incl. vig 51.0% 47.2%
Kalshi contract price 51.5% 48.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record