Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames

All Minnesota Wild predictions · All Calgary Flames predictions

NHL · Thursday, October 22, 2026 · 9:08 PM · Final: 1-2

The model's call
Minnesota Wild to win
Model confidence 65.2%
Books consensus 65.2%
Result Calgary Flames won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Minnesota WildCalgary Flames
BetMGM -210 +170
BetRivers -215 +175
DraftKings -218 +180
ESPN BET -210 +175
Fanatics -215 +175
FanDuel -210 +172
Hard Rock Bet -200 +155
Novig -194 +190
Caesars -218 +180

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Wild −1.5
priced 42.8% to cover · 7 books
Calgary Flames covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 45.6% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 5.5
Under 6.5 (3 scored)
Spread by book WildFlames
BetMGM −1.5 +118 +1.5 -145
BetRivers −1.5 +118 +1.5 -148
DraftKings −1.5 +124 +1.5 -148
ESPN BET −1.5 +130 +1.5 -155
Fanatics −1.5 +125 +1.5 -150
FanDuel −1.5 +118 +1.5 -144
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +130 +1.5 -165
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -118 6 -102
BetRivers 6.5 +112 6.5 -139
DraftKings 6.5 +110 6.5 -130
ESPN BET 6.5 +110 6.5 -130
Fanatics 6.5 +110 6.5 -135
FanDuel 6.5 +110 6.5 -134
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 +105 6.5 -130
Caesars 6 -118 6 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Minnesota WildCalgary Flames
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 65.2% 34.8%
Best book price incl. vig 66.0% 34.5%
Kalshi contract price 65.5% 34.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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