Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Carolina Hurricanes at Edmonton Oilers

All Carolina Hurricanes predictions · All Edmonton Oilers predictions

NHL · Thursday, October 22, 2026 · 9:10 PM · Final: 5-6

The model's call
Carolina Hurricanes to win
Model confidence 54.7%
Books consensus 54.7%
Result Edmonton Oilers won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Carolina HurricanesEdmonton Oilers
BetMGM -135 +115
BetRivers -129 +108
DraftKings -135 +114
ESPN BET -130 +110
Fanatics -140 +115
FanDuel -134 +112
Hard Rock Bet -135 +105
Novig -122 +120
Caesars -130 +111

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Hurricanes −1.5
priced 34.2% to cover · 7 books
Edmonton Oilers covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 53.5% over · 8 books
Over 6.5 (11 scored)
Spread by book HurricanesOilers
BetMGM −1.5 +180 +1.5 -220
BetRivers −1.5 +185 +1.5 -235
DraftKings −1.5 +190 +1.5 -230
ESPN BET −1.5 +180 +1.5 -225
Fanatics −1.5 +175 +1.5 -220
FanDuel −1.5 +168 +1.5 -210
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +175 +1.5 -230
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -118 6.5 -102
BetRivers 6.5 -129 6.5 +104
DraftKings 6.5 -135 6.5 +114
ESPN BET 6.5 -130 6.5 +110
Fanatics 6.5 -125 6.5 +105
FanDuel 6.5 -124 6.5 +102
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -130 6.5 +105
Caesars 6.5 -129 6.5 +105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Carolina HurricanesEdmonton Oilers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 54.7% 45.3%
Best book price incl. vig 55.0% 45.5%
Kalshi contract price 54.0% 46.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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