Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Detroit Red Wings at Vancouver Canucks

All Detroit Red Wings predictions · All Vancouver Canucks predictions

NHL · Thursday, October 22, 2026 · 10:08 PM · Final: 5-2

The model's call
Detroit Red Wings to win
Model confidence 60.0%
Books consensus 60.0%
Result Detroit Red Wings won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Detroit Red WingsVancouver Canucks
BetMGM -165 +140
BetRivers -167 +140
DraftKings -170 +142
ESPN BET -155 +135
Fanatics -170 +140
FanDuel -166 +138
Hard Rock Bet -160 +125
Novig -160 +156
Caesars -170 +143

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Red Wings −1.5
priced 38.8% to cover · 7 books
Detroit Red Wings covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 49.2% over · 8 books
Over 6.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book Red WingsCanucks
BetMGM −1.5 +140 +1.5 -170
BetRivers −1.5 +148 +1.5 -182
DraftKings −1.5 +145 +1.5 -175
ESPN BET −1.5 +150 +1.5 -180
Fanatics −1.5 +145 +1.5 -180
FanDuel −1.5 +148 +1.5 -188
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +140 +1.5 -185
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
BetRivers 6.5 -109 6.5 -114
DraftKings 6.5 -102 6.5 -118
ESPN BET 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Fanatics 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
FanDuel 6.5 -104 6.5 -118
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Caesars 6.5 -110 6.5 -113

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Detroit Red WingsVancouver Canucks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 60.0% 40.0%
Best book price incl. vig 60.8% 39.1%
Kalshi contract price 61.5% 38.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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