Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Utah Mammoth at Seattle Kraken

All Utah Mammoth predictions · All Seattle Kraken predictions

NHL · Thursday, October 22, 2026 · 10:08 PM · Final: 3-5

The model's call
Utah Mammoth to win
Model confidence 61.9%
Books consensus 61.9%
Result Seattle Kraken won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Utah MammothSeattle Kraken
BetMGM -185 +150
BetRivers -175 +145
DraftKings -192 +160
ESPN BET -175 +150
Fanatics -190 +155
FanDuel -176 +146
Hard Rock Bet -190 +145
Novig -174 +170
Caesars -190 +155

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Mammoth −1.5
priced 41.1% to cover · 7 books
Seattle Kraken covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 51.0% over · 8 books
Over 6.5 (8 scored)
Spread by book MammothKraken
BetMGM −1.5 +125 +1.5 -155
BetRivers −1.5 +143 +1.5 -177
DraftKings −1.5 +130 +1.5 -155
ESPN BET −1.5 +140 +1.5 -165
Fanatics −1.5 +130 +1.5 -160
FanDuel −1.5 +132 +1.5 -162
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +130 +1.5 -165
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
BetRivers 6.5 -112 6.5 -110
DraftKings 6.5 -112 6.5 -108
ESPN BET 6.5 -120 6.5 +100
Fanatics 6.5 -115 6.5 -105
FanDuel 6.5 -114 6.5 -106
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -120 6.5 +100
Caesars 6.5 -120 6.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Utah MammothSeattle Kraken
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 61.9% 38.1%
Best book price incl. vig 63.5% 37.0%
Kalshi contract price 63.5% 36.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record