Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks

All Chicago Bulls predictions · All Milwaukee Bucks predictions

NBA · Friday, October 23, 2026 · 4:16 PM · Final: 132-125

The model's call
Milwaukee Bucks to win
Model confidence 53.1%
Books consensus 53.1%
Result Chicago Bulls won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Chicago BullsMilwaukee Bucks
BetMGM +105 -125
BetRivers +104 -125
DraftKings -102 -118
ESPN BET +100 -120
Fanatics +105 -125
FanDuel +104 -122
Hard Rock Bet +100 -120
Novig +115 -117
Caesars +110 -130

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Bucks −1.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
Chicago Bulls covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 240.5
priced 50.0% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 238.5
Over 240.5 (257 scored)
Spread by book BullsBucks
BetMGM +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
BetRivers +1.5 -109 −1.5 -112
DraftKings +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
ESPN BET +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
Fanatics +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
FanDuel +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
Caesars +2 -105 −2 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 240.5 -110 240.5 -110
BetRivers 241.5 -113 241.5 -108
DraftKings 241.5 -110 241.5 -110
ESPN BET 240.5 -115 240.5 -105
Fanatics 240.5 -110 240.5 -110
FanDuel 240.5 -110 240.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 240.5 -110 240.5 -110
Caesars 240 -110 240 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Chicago BullsMilwaukee Bucks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 46.9% 53.1%
Best book price incl. vig 46.5% 53.9%
Kalshi contract price 46.5% 53.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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