Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets

All Atlanta Hawks predictions · All Charlotte Hornets predictions

NBA · Friday, October 23, 2026 · 7:13 PM · Final: 128-81

The model's call
Atlanta Hawks to win
Model confidence 56.2%
Books consensus 56.2%
Result Atlanta Hawks won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Atlanta HawksCharlotte Hornets
BetMGM -145 +118
BetRivers -143 +118
DraftKings -142 +120
ESPN BET -140 +120
Fanatics -140 +115
FanDuel -136 +116
Hard Rock Bet -145 +120
Novig -127 +125
Caesars -135 +115

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Hawks −2.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 8 books
Atlanta Hawks covered −2.5
Total · closing
O/U 226.5
priced 50.0% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened 225.5
Under 226.5 (209 scored)
Spread by book HawksHornets
BetMGM −2.5 -110 +2.5 -110
BetRivers −2.5 -110 +2.5 -110
DraftKings −2.5 -110 +2.5 -110
ESPN BET −2.5 -110 +2.5 -110
Fanatics −2.5 -110 +2.5 -110
FanDuel −2.5 -110 +2.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet −2.5 -110 +2.5 -110
Caesars −2.5 -110 +2.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 226.5 -110 226.5 -110
BetRivers 227.5 -107 227.5 -114
DraftKings 226.5 -110 226.5 -110
ESPN BET 226.5 -105 226.5 -115
Fanatics 226.5 -110 226.5 -110
FanDuel 226.5 -110 226.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 226.5 -115 226.5 -105
Caesars 226.5 -110 226.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Atlanta HawksCharlotte Hornets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 56.2% 43.8%
Best book price incl. vig 55.9% 44.4%
Kalshi contract price 56.1% 43.9%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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