Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards

All Toronto Raptors predictions · All Washington Wizards predictions

NBA · Friday, October 23, 2026 · 7:13 PM · Final: 112-102

The model's call
Toronto Raptors to win
Model confidence 74.1%
Books consensus 74.1%
Result Toronto Raptors won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Toronto RaptorsWashington Wizards
BetMGM -325 +260
BetRivers -345 +270
DraftKings -340 +270
ESPN BET -340 +270
Fanatics -330 +260
FanDuel -330 +265
Hard Rock Bet -350 +275
Novig -292 +285
Caesars -335 +260

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Raptors −8.5
priced 50.5% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened Raptors −4.5
Toronto Raptors covered −8.5
Total · closing
O/U 236.5
priced 50.0% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened 235.5
Under 236.5 (214 scored)
Spread by book RaptorsWizards
BetMGM −8.5 -115 +8.5 -105
BetRivers −8.5 -113 +8.5 -108
DraftKings −9.5 -102 +9.5 -118
ESPN BET −8.5 -120 +8.5 +100
Fanatics −8.5 -110 +8.5 -110
FanDuel −8.5 -110 +8.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet −8.5 -115 +8.5 -105
Caesars −8.5 -110 +8.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 236.5 -110 236.5 -110
BetRivers 237.5 -106 237.5 -115
DraftKings 236.5 -108 236.5 -112
ESPN BET 236.5 -110 236.5 -110
Fanatics 236.5 -110 236.5 -110
FanDuel 236.5 -110 236.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 236.5 -110 236.5 -110
Caesars 236.5 -110 236.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Toronto RaptorsWashington Wizards
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 74.1% 25.9%
Best book price incl. vig 74.5% 26.0%
Kalshi contract price 74.5% 25.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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