Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers

All Los Angeles Clippers predictions · All Los Angeles Lakers predictions

NBA · Friday, October 23, 2026 · 10:11 PM · Final: 117-125

The model's call
Los Angeles Lakers to win
Model confidence 74.8%
Books consensus 74.8%
Result Los Angeles Lakers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles ClippersLos Angeles Lakers
BetMGM +275 -350
BetRivers +295 -385
DraftKings +285 -360
ESPN BET +280 -360
Fanatics +275 -350
FanDuel +265 -330
Hard Rock Bet +300 -400
Novig +308 -317
Caesars +278 -355

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Lakers −8.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened Lakers −9.5
Los Angeles Clippers covered +8.5
Total · closing
O/U 225.5
priced 50.0% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 228.5
Over 225.5 (242 scored)
Spread by book ClippersLakers
BetMGM +8.5 -110 −8.5 -110
BetRivers +9.5 -114 −9.5 -107
DraftKings +8.5 -108 −8.5 -112
ESPN BET +8.5 -110 −8.5 -110
Fanatics +8.5 -105 −8.5 -115
FanDuel +8.5 -110 −8.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet +8.5 -105 −8.5 -115
Caesars +8.5 -110 −8.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 225.5 -110 225.5 -110
BetRivers 226.5 -112 226.5 -109
DraftKings 225.5 -108 225.5 -112
ESPN BET 225.5 -105 225.5 -115
Fanatics 225.5 -110 225.5 -110
FanDuel 225.5 -110 225.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 225.5 -110 225.5 -110
Caesars 226 -105 226 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles ClippersLos Angeles Lakers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 25.2% 74.8%
Best book price incl. vig 24.5% 76.0%
Kalshi contract price 24.5% 75.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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