Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Montréal Canadiens at Chicago Blackhawks

All Montréal Canadiens predictions · All Chicago Blackhawks predictions

NHL · Friday, October 23, 2026 · 8:09 PM · Final: 4-1

The model's call
Montréal Canadiens to win
Model confidence 59.4%
Books consensus 59.4%
Result Montréal Canadiens won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Montréal CanadiensChicago Blackhawks
BetMGM -170 +140
BetRivers -165 +138
DraftKings -170 +142
ESPN BET -155 +135
Fanatics -165 +135
FanDuel -160 +132
Hard Rock Bet -170 +130
Novig -147 +144
Caesars -170 +140

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Canadiens −1.5
priced 38.1% to cover · 7 books
Montréal Canadiens covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 48.1% over · 8 books
Under 6.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book CanadiensBlackhawks
BetMGM −1.5 +145 +1.5 -175
BetRivers −1.5 +148 +1.5 -186
DraftKings −1.5 +150 +1.5 -180
ESPN BET −1.5 +160 +1.5 -190
Fanatics −1.5 +150 +1.5 -185
FanDuel −1.5 +152 +1.5 -188
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +160 +1.5 -210
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
BetRivers 6.5 -105 6.5 -120
DraftKings 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
ESPN BET 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Fanatics 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
FanDuel 6.5 +100 6.5 -122
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Caesars 6.5 -118 6.5 -108

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Montréal CanadiensChicago Blackhawks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 59.4% 40.6%
Best book price incl. vig 59.5% 41.0%
Kalshi contract price 59.9% 40.1%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record