Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Kings at New Jersey Devils

All Los Angeles Kings predictions · All New Jersey Devils predictions

NHL · Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 3:38 PM · Final: 1-3

The model's call
New Jersey Devils to win
Model confidence 63.2%
Books consensus 63.2%
Result New Jersey Devils won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles KingsNew Jersey Devils
BetMGM +165 -200
BetRivers +160 -190
DraftKings +154 -185
ESPN BET +170 -200
Fanatics +155 -190
FanDuel +155 -188
Hard Rock Bet +160 -210
Novig +170 -174
Caesars +160 -195

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Devils −1.5
priced 40.9% to cover · 7 books
New Jersey Devils covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 52.4% over · 8 books
Under 5.5 (4 scored)
Spread by book KingsDevils
BetMGM +1.5 -160 −1.5 +135
BetRivers +1.5 -167 −1.5 +135
DraftKings +1.5 -166 −1.5 +140
ESPN BET +1.5 -160 −1.5 +135
Fanatics +1.5 -170 −1.5 +140
FanDuel +1.5 -160 −1.5 +130
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -165 −1.5 +130
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
BetRivers 5.5 -129 5.5 +104
DraftKings 5.5 -122 5.5 +102
ESPN BET 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
Fanatics 5.5 -125 5.5 +105
FanDuel 5.5 -122 5.5 +100
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
Caesars 5.5 -122 5.5 +100

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles KingsNew Jersey Devils
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 36.8% 63.2%
Best book price incl. vig 37.0% 63.5%
Kalshi contract price 36.5% 63.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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