Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

San Jose Sharks at Boston Bruins

All San Jose Sharks predictions · All Boston Bruins predictions

NHL · Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 7:08 PM · Final: 4-6

The model's call
Boston Bruins to win
Model confidence 62.9%
Books consensus 62.9%
Result Boston Bruins won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book San Jose SharksBoston Bruins
BetMGM +155 -190
BetRivers +160 -195
DraftKings +160 -192
ESPN BET +155 -185
Fanatics +155 -190
FanDuel +158 -192
Hard Rock Bet +145 -190
Novig +170 -178
Caesars +160 -195

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Bruins −1.5
priced 41.4% to cover · 7 books
Boston Bruins covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 49.8% over · 8 books
Over 6.5 (10 scored)
Spread by book SharksBruins
BetMGM +1.5 -150 −1.5 +125
BetRivers +1.5 -165 −1.5 +132
DraftKings +1.5 -155 −1.5 +130
ESPN BET +1.5 -165 −1.5 +140
Fanatics +1.5 -160 −1.5 +130
FanDuel +1.5 -160 −1.5 +130
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -165 −1.5 +130
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
BetRivers 6.5 -110 6.5 -113
DraftKings 6.5 -112 6.5 -108
ESPN BET 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Fanatics 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
FanDuel 6.5 +102 6.5 -124
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Caesars 6.5 -118 6.5 -107

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue San Jose SharksBoston Bruins
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 37.1% 62.9%
Best book price incl. vig 37.0% 64.0%
Kalshi contract price 35.5% 64.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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