Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals

All Buffalo Sabres predictions · All Washington Capitals predictions

NHL · Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 7:08 PM · Final: 3-4

The model's call
Washington Capitals to win
Model confidence 52.2%
Books consensus 52.2%
Result Washington Capitals won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Buffalo SabresWashington Capitals
BetMGM +100 -120
BetRivers +106 -125
DraftKings +100 -120
ESPN BET +100 -120
Fanatics +100 -120
FanDuel +100 -120
Hard Rock Bet -105 -125
Novig +106 -111
Caesars +106 -125

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Capitals −1.5
priced 32.8% to cover · 7 books
Buffalo Sabres covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 53.8% over · 8 books
Over 6.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book SabresCapitals
BetMGM +1.5 -225 −1.5 +185
BetRivers +1.5 -245 −1.5 +190
DraftKings +1.5 -238 −1.5 +195
ESPN BET +1.5 -250 −1.5 +200
Fanatics +1.5 -240 −1.5 +190
FanDuel +1.5 -240 −1.5 +190
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -250 −1.5 +180
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -130 6.5 +110
BetRivers 6.5 -132 6.5 +106
DraftKings 6.5 -125 6.5 +105
ESPN BET 6.5 -130 6.5 +110
Fanatics 6.5 -125 6.5 +105
FanDuel 6.5 -130 6.5 +106
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -130 6.5 +105
Caesars 6.5 -130 6.5 +106

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Buffalo SabresWashington Capitals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 47.8% 52.2%
Best book price incl. vig 48.5% 52.6%
Kalshi contract price 48.0% 52.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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