Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Vegas Golden Knights at Columbus Blue Jackets

All Vegas Golden Knights predictions · All Columbus Blue Jackets predictions

NHL · Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 7:09 PM · Final: 1-2

The model's call
Vegas Golden Knights to win
Model confidence 54.7%
Books consensus 54.7%
Result Columbus Blue Jackets won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Vegas Golden KnightsColumbus Blue Jackets
BetMGM -135 +110
BetRivers -136 +115
DraftKings -135 +114
ESPN BET -130 +110
Fanatics -130 +110
FanDuel -134 +112
Hard Rock Bet -135 +105
Novig -120 +117
Caesars -140 +120

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Golden Knights −1.5
priced 33.3% to cover · 7 books
Columbus Blue Jackets covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 45.8% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
Under 6.5 (3 scored)
Spread by book Golden KnightsBlue Jackets
BetMGM −1.5 +180 +1.5 -220
BetRivers −1.5 +180 +1.5 -235
DraftKings −1.5 +185 +1.5 -225
ESPN BET −1.5 +200 +1.5 -250
Fanatics −1.5 +185 +1.5 -235
FanDuel −1.5 +194 +1.5 -245
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +180 +1.5 -250
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -118 6 -102
BetRivers 6.5 +106 6.5 -132
DraftKings 6.5 +110 6.5 -130
ESPN BET 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
Fanatics 6.5 +110 6.5 -135
FanDuel 6.5 +108 6.5 -132
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
Caesars 6 -122 6 +100

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Vegas Golden KnightsColumbus Blue Jackets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 54.7% 45.3%
Best book price incl. vig 54.5% 45.5%
Kalshi contract price 54.5% 45.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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