Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Nashville Predators at Pittsburgh Penguins

All Nashville Predators predictions · All Pittsburgh Penguins predictions

NHL · Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 7:08 PM · Final: 2-3

The model's call
Pittsburgh Penguins to win
Model confidence 53.4%
Books consensus 53.4%
Result Pittsburgh Penguins won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Nashville PredatorsPittsburgh Penguins
BetMGM +105 -130
BetRivers +102 -121
DraftKings +105 -125
ESPN BET +110 -130
Fanatics +105 -125
FanDuel +106 -128
Hard Rock Bet +100 -130
Novig +113 -117
Caesars +108 -128

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Penguins −1.5
priced 33.3% to cover · 7 books
Nashville Predators covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 49.9% over · 8 books
Under 6.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book PredatorsPenguins
BetMGM +1.5 -220 −1.5 +180
BetRivers +1.5 -275 −1.5 +210
DraftKings +1.5 -230 −1.5 +190
ESPN BET +1.5 -235 −1.5 +190
Fanatics +1.5 -235 −1.5 +185
FanDuel +1.5 -230 −1.5 +184
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -250 −1.5 +180
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
BetRivers 6.5 -110 6.5 -113
DraftKings 6.5 -108 6.5 -112
ESPN BET 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Fanatics 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
FanDuel 6.5 -108 6.5 -112
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Caesars 6.5 -111 6.5 -112

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Nashville PredatorsPittsburgh Penguins
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 46.6% 53.4%
Best book price incl. vig 46.9% 53.9%
Kalshi contract price 46.5% 53.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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