Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New York Rangers at Ottawa Senators

All New York Rangers predictions · All Ottawa Senators predictions

NHL · Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 7:08 PM · Final: 4-7

The model's call
Ottawa Senators to win
Model confidence 53.2%
Books consensus 53.2%
Result Ottawa Senators won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New York RangersOttawa Senators
BetMGM +105 -125
BetRivers +104 -122
DraftKings +105 -125
ESPN BET +105 -125
Fanatics +105 -125
FanDuel +106 -128
Hard Rock Bet +100 -130
Novig +115 -120
Caesars +105 -122

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Senators −1.5
priced 32.8% to cover · 7 books
Ottawa Senators covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 45.4% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Over 6.5 (11 scored)
Spread by book RangersSenators
BetMGM +1.5 -225 −1.5 +185
BetRivers +1.5 -265 −1.5 +205
DraftKings +1.5 -238 −1.5 +195
ESPN BET +1.5 -250 −1.5 +200
Fanatics +1.5 -240 −1.5 +190
FanDuel +1.5 -240 −1.5 +190
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -250 −1.5 +180
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -115 6 -105
BetRivers 6.5 +110 6.5 -136
DraftKings 6.5 +114 6.5 -135
ESPN BET 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
Fanatics 6.5 +110 6.5 -135
FanDuel 6.5 +110 6.5 -134
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Caesars 6 -120 6 -102

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New York RangersOttawa Senators
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 46.8% 53.2%
Best book price incl. vig 46.5% 54.5%
Kalshi contract price 46.5% 53.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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