Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames

All Detroit Red Wings predictions · All Calgary Flames predictions

NHL · Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 10:14 PM · Final: 1-4

The model's call
Detroit Red Wings to win
Model confidence 54.3%
Books consensus 54.3%
Result Calgary Flames won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Detroit Red WingsCalgary Flames
BetMGM -135 +110
BetRivers -130 +110
DraftKings -130 +110
ESPN BET -130 +110
Fanatics -130 +110
FanDuel -134 +112
Hard Rock Bet -135 +105
Novig -122 +120
Caesars -129 +109

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Red Wings −1.5
priced 33.3% to cover · 7 books
Calgary Flames covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 54.7% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
Under 5.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book Red WingsFlames
BetMGM −1.5 +180 +1.5 -220
BetRivers −1.5 +190 +1.5 -245
DraftKings −1.5 +190 +1.5 -230
ESPN BET −1.5 +190 +1.5 -235
Fanatics −1.5 +185 +1.5 -235
FanDuel −1.5 +180 +1.5 -235
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +180 +1.5 -250
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -110 6 -110
BetRivers 5.5 -137 5.5 +110
DraftKings 5.5 -135 5.5 +114
ESPN BET 5.5 -130 5.5 +110
Fanatics 5.5 -135 5.5 +110
FanDuel 6.5 +112 6.5 -138
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -130 5.5 +105
Caesars 6 -108 6 -114

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Detroit Red WingsCalgary Flames
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 54.3% 45.7%
Best book price incl. vig 55.0% 45.5%
Kalshi contract price 54.5% 45.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record