Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Minnesota Wild at Seattle Kraken

All Minnesota Wild predictions · All Seattle Kraken predictions

NHL · Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 10:09 PM · Final: 5-1

The model's call
Minnesota Wild to win
Model confidence 62.6%
Books consensus 62.6%
Result Minnesota Wild won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Minnesota WildSeattle Kraken
BetMGM -190 +155
BetRivers -180 +150
DraftKings -192 +160
ESPN BET -190 +160
Fanatics -190 +155
FanDuel -188 +155
Hard Rock Bet -180 +140
Novig -178 +170
Caesars -200 +165

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Wild −1.5
priced 40.0% to cover · 7 books
Minnesota Wild covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 46.7% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
Under 6.5 (6 scored)
Spread by book WildKraken
BetMGM −1.5 +125 +1.5 -155
BetRivers −1.5 +138 +1.5 -175
DraftKings −1.5 +140 +1.5 -166
ESPN BET −1.5 +145 +1.5 -175
Fanatics −1.5 +135 +1.5 -165
FanDuel −1.5 +130 +1.5 -162
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +140 +1.5 -185
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -120 6 +100
BetRivers 6.5 +104 6.5 -127
DraftKings 6.5 +110 6.5 -130
ESPN BET 5.5 -130 5.5 +110
Fanatics 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
FanDuel 6.5 +104 6.5 -128
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -130 5.5 +105
Caesars 6 -121 6 -102

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Minnesota WildSeattle Kraken
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 62.6% 37.4%
Best book price incl. vig 64.0% 37.0%
Kalshi contract price 63.5% 36.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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