Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers

All Brooklyn Nets predictions · All Cleveland Cavaliers predictions

NBA · Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 7:42 PM · Final: 121-125

The model's call
Cleveland Cavaliers to win
Model confidence 79.2%
Books consensus 79.2%
Result Cleveland Cavaliers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Brooklyn NetsCleveland Cavaliers
BetMGM +360 -475
BetRivers +360 -480
DraftKings +380 -500
ESPN BET +380 -550
Fanatics +360 -475
FanDuel +350 -450
Hard Rock Bet +400 -525
Novig +400 -413
Caesars +360 -480

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Cavaliers −10.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 4 books, 4 on another number
Brooklyn Nets covered +10.5
Total · closing
O/U 228.5
priced 50.0% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened 231.5
Over 228.5 (246 scored)
Spread by book NetsCavaliers
BetMGM +10.5 -105 −10.5 -115
BetRivers +11.5 -113 −11.5 -108
DraftKings +11.5 -112 −11.5 -108
ESPN BET +11.5 -115 −11.5 -105
Fanatics +10.5 -105 −10.5 -115
FanDuel +10.5 -106 −10.5 -114
Hard Rock Bet +10.5 -105 −10.5 -115
Caesars +11.5 -110 −11.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 228.5 -118 228.5 -110
BetRivers 228.5 -112 228.5 -109
DraftKings 228.5 -115 228.5 -105
ESPN BET 228.5 -110 228.5 -110
Fanatics 228.5 -110 228.5 -110
FanDuel 228.5 -110 228.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 228.5 -110 228.5 -110
Caesars 230.5 +110 230.5 -130

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Brooklyn NetsCleveland Cavaliers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 20.8% 79.2%
Best book price incl. vig 20.0% 80.5%
Kalshi contract price 19.5% 80.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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