Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers

All Milwaukee Bucks predictions · All Philadelphia 76ers predictions

NBA · Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 116-127

The model's call
Philadelphia 76ers to win
Model confidence 83.5%
Books consensus 83.5%
Result Philadelphia 76ers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Milwaukee BucksPhiladelphia 76ers
BetMGM +475 -650
BetRivers +410 -590
DraftKings +470 -650
ESPN BET +475 -750
Fanatics +460 -650
FanDuel +500 -700
Hard Rock Bet +500 -750
Novig +525 -545
Caesars +550 -800

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
76ers −12.5
priced 50.8% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
Milwaukee Bucks covered +12.5
Total · closing
O/U 234.5
priced 50.0% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 230.5
Over 234.5 (243 scored)
Spread by book Bucks76ers
BetMGM +13.5 -110 −13.5 -110
BetRivers +12.5 -110 −12.5 -110
DraftKings +12.5 -108 −12.5 -112
ESPN BET +12.5 -110 −12.5 -110
Fanatics +12.5 -105 −12.5 -115
FanDuel +13.5 -115 −13.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet +12.5 +100 −12.5 -120
Caesars +12.5 -105 −12.5 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 234.5 -110 234.5 -110
BetRivers 235.5 -108 235.5 -114
DraftKings 234.5 -112 234.5 -108
ESPN BET 234.5 -105 234.5 -115
Fanatics 234.5 -110 234.5 -110
FanDuel 234.5 -110 234.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 234.5 -110 234.5 -110
Caesars 235 -105 235 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Milwaukee BucksPhiladelphia 76ers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 16.5% 83.5%
Best book price incl. vig 15.4% 84.5%
Kalshi contract price 15.5% 84.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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