Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls

All Washington Wizards predictions · All Chicago Bulls predictions

NBA · Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 8:14 PM · Final: 124-120

The model's call
Chicago Bulls to win
Model confidence 52.8%
Books consensus 52.8%
Result Washington Wizards won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Washington WizardsChicago Bulls
BetMGM +105 -125
BetRivers +104 -127
DraftKings +105 -125
ESPN BET -105 -115
Fanatics +105 -125
FanDuel +102 -120
Hard Rock Bet +100 -120
Novig +111 -113
Caesars +100 -120

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Bulls −1.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 8 books
opened Wizards −1.5
Washington Wizards covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 244.5
priced 50.0% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened 243.5
Under 244.5 (244 scored)
Spread by book WizardsBulls
BetMGM +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
BetRivers +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
DraftKings +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
ESPN BET +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
Fanatics +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
FanDuel +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
Caesars +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 244.5 -110 244.5 -110
BetRivers 245.5 -109 245.5 -112
DraftKings 244.5 -110 244.5 -110
ESPN BET 244.5 -110 244.5 -110
Fanatics 244.5 -110 244.5 -110
FanDuel 244.5 -110 244.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 244.5 -110 244.5 -110
Caesars 244.5 -110 244.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Washington WizardsChicago Bulls
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 47.2% 52.8%
Best book price incl. vig 47.4% 53.1%
Kalshi contract price 47.0% 53.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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