Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks

All San Antonio Spurs predictions · All Dallas Mavericks predictions

NBA · Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 8:13 PM · Final: 122-106

The model's call
San Antonio Spurs to win
Model confidence 86.3%
Books consensus 86.3%
Result San Antonio Spurs won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book San Antonio SpursDallas Mavericks
BetMGM -1000 +625
BetRivers -835 +550
DraftKings -900 +600
ESPN BET -1000 +600
Fanatics -850 +575
FanDuel -900 +610
Hard Rock Bet -850 +575
Novig -669 +641
Caesars -900 +600

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Spurs −14.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened Spurs −12.5
San Antonio Spurs covered −14.5
Total · closing
O/U 229.5
priced 50.0% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 230.5
Under 229.5 (228 scored)
Spread by book SpursMavericks
BetMGM −14.5 -115 +14.5 -105
BetRivers −14.5 -112 +14.5 -109
DraftKings −14.5 -115 +14.5 -105
ESPN BET −14.5 -115 +14.5 -105
Fanatics −14.5 -115 +14.5 -105
FanDuel −15.5 -104 +15.5 -118
Hard Rock Bet −14.5 -115 +14.5 -105
Caesars −15.5 -110 +15.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 229.5 -110 229.5 -110
BetRivers 230.5 -112 230.5 -109
DraftKings 229.5 -110 229.5 -110
ESPN BET 229.5 -110 229.5 -110
Fanatics 229.5 -110 229.5 -110
FanDuel 229.5 -115 229.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet 229.5 -115 229.5 -105
Caesars 230 -110 230 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue San Antonio SpursDallas Mavericks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 86.3% 13.7%
Best book price incl. vig 87.0% 13.5%
Kalshi contract price 86.5% 13.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record