Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Houston Rockets at Atlanta Hawks

All Houston Rockets predictions · All Atlanta Hawks predictions

NBA · Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 8:45 PM · Final: 121-114

The model's call
Atlanta Hawks to win
Model confidence 50.0%
Books consensus 50.0%
Result Houston Rockets won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Houston RocketsAtlanta Hawks
BetMGM -105 -115
BetRivers -107 -114
DraftKings -112 -108
ESPN BET -115 -105
Fanatics -105 -115
FanDuel -108 -108
Hard Rock Bet -110 -110
Novig +102 -104
Caesars -110 -110

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Hawks −1.5
priced 48.3% to cover · 3 books, 5 on another number
Houston Rockets covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 227.5
priced 50.0% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 230.5
Over 227.5 (235 scored)
Spread by book RocketsHawks
BetMGM +1.5 -118 −1.5 -102
BetRivers −0.5 -107 +0.5 -114
DraftKings −1.5 -102 +1.5 -118
ESPN BET −1.5 +100 +1.5 -120
Fanatics +1 -110 −1 -110
FanDuel +1.5 -122 −1.5 +100
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +100 +1.5 -120
Caesars +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 227.5 -110 227.5 -110
BetRivers 228.5 -108 228.5 -113
DraftKings 227.5 -108 227.5 -112
ESPN BET 227.5 -110 227.5 -110
Fanatics 228 -110 228 -110
FanDuel 227.5 -110 227.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 227.5 -110 227.5 -110
Caesars 227.5 -105 227.5 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Houston RocketsAtlanta Hawks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 50.0% 50.0%
Best book price incl. vig 49.5% 51.0%
Kalshi contract price 49.5% 50.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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