Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Montréal Canadiens at Winnipeg Jets

All Montréal Canadiens predictions · All Winnipeg Jets predictions

NHL · Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 7:22 PM · Final: 2-1

The model's call
Montréal Canadiens to win
Model confidence 51.7%
Books consensus 51.7%
Result Montréal Canadiens won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Montréal CanadiensWinnipeg Jets
BetMGM -118 -102
BetRivers -117 -103
DraftKings -118 -102
ESPN BET -115 -105
Fanatics -120 +100
FanDuel -120 +100
Hard Rock Bet -120 -110
Novig -113 +111
Caesars -121 +102

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Canadiens −1.5
priced 30.8% to cover · 7 books
Winnipeg Jets covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 53.4% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Under 5.5 (3 scored)
Spread by book CanadiensJets
BetMGM −1.5 +200 +1.5 -250
BetRivers −1.5 +220 +1.5 -278
DraftKings −1.5 +220 +1.5 -270
ESPN BET −1.5 +215 +1.5 -290
Fanatics −1.5 +200 +1.5 -255
FanDuel −1.5 +194 +1.5 -245
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +200 +1.5 -300
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -102 6 -118
BetRivers 5.5 -129 5.5 +104
DraftKings 5.5 -130 5.5 +110
ESPN BET 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
Fanatics 5.5 -125 5.5 +105
FanDuel 5.5 -132 5.5 +108
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
Caesars 6 -115 6 -107

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Montréal CanadiensWinnipeg Jets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 51.7% 48.3%
Best book price incl. vig 53.1% 47.4%
Kalshi contract price 51.5% 48.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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