Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators

All Colorado Avalanche predictions · All Nashville Predators predictions

NHL · Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 8:10 PM · Final: 2-6

The model's call
Colorado Avalanche to win
Model confidence 67.5%
Books consensus 67.5%
Result Nashville Predators won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Colorado AvalancheNashville Predators
BetMGM -235 +195
BetRivers -235 +190
DraftKings -238 +195
ESPN BET -225 +190
Fanatics -245 +200
FanDuel -240 +195
Hard Rock Bet -250 +180
Novig -217 +213
Caesars -250 +205

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Avalanche −1.5
priced 46.5% to cover · 7 books
Nashville Predators covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 50.0% over · 8 books
Over 6.5 (8 scored)
Spread by book AvalanchePredators
BetMGM −1.5 +100 +1.5 -120
BetRivers −1.5 +104 +1.5 -129
DraftKings −1.5 +105 +1.5 -125
ESPN BET −1.5 +110 +1.5 -130
Fanatics −1.5 +105 +1.5 -125
FanDuel −1.5 +106 +1.5 -130
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +105 +1.5 -130
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
BetRivers 6.5 -113 6.5 -110
DraftKings 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
ESPN BET 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Fanatics 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
FanDuel 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Caesars 6.5 -120 6.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Colorado AvalancheNashville Predators
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 67.5% 32.5%
Best book price incl. vig 68.5% 31.9%
Kalshi contract price 68.5% 31.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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