Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz

All Los Angeles Lakers predictions · All Utah Jazz predictions

NBA · Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 5:11 PM · Final: 132-123

The model's call
Los Angeles Lakers to win
Model confidence 67.9%
Books consensus 67.9%
Result Los Angeles Lakers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles LakersUtah Jazz
BetMGM -250 +200
BetRivers -220 +175
DraftKings -250 +205
ESPN BET -240 +200
Fanatics -235 +190
FanDuel -225 +188
Hard Rock Bet -250 +200
Novig -217 +213
Caesars -225 +185

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Lakers −6.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
Los Angeles Lakers covered −6.5
Total · closing
O/U 237.5
priced 50.0% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
Over 237.5 (255 scored)
Spread by book LakersJazz
BetMGM −6.5 -110 +6.5 -110
BetRivers −5.5 -109 +5.5 -112
DraftKings −6.5 -110 +6.5 -110
ESPN BET −6.5 -105 +6.5 -115
Fanatics −6.5 -105 +6.5 -115
FanDuel −6.5 -105 +6.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet −6.5 -115 +6.5 -105
Caesars −6.5 -105 +6.5 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 238.5 -105 238.5 -115
BetRivers 238.5 -113 238.5 -108
DraftKings 237.5 -105 237.5 -115
ESPN BET 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
Fanatics 238 -110 238 -110
FanDuel 237.5 -112 237.5 -108
Hard Rock Bet 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
Caesars 239 -110 239 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles LakersUtah Jazz
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 67.9% 32.1%
Best book price incl. vig 68.5% 31.9%
Kalshi contract price 68.5% 31.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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