Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn Nets

All Indiana Pacers predictions · All Brooklyn Nets predictions

NBA · Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 6:10 PM · Final: 136-109

The model's call
Indiana Pacers to win
Model confidence 65.7%
Books consensus 65.7%
Result Indiana Pacers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Indiana PacersBrooklyn Nets
BetMGM -220 +180
BetRivers -210 +170
DraftKings -218 +180
ESPN BET -215 +180
Fanatics -220 +180
FanDuel -225 +188
Hard Rock Bet -230 +185
Novig -190 +186
Caesars -205 +170

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Pacers −5.5
priced 50.8% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened Pacers −7.5
Indiana Pacers covered −5.5
Total · closing
O/U 231.5
priced 50.0% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Over 231.5 (245 scored)
Spread by book PacersNets
BetMGM −5.5 -118 +5.5 -102
BetRivers −5.5 -105 +5.5 -117
DraftKings −5.5 -112 +5.5 -108
ESPN BET −5.5 -110 +5.5 -110
Fanatics −5.5 -115 +5.5 -105
FanDuel −6.5 -110 +6.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet −6.5 -105 +6.5 -115
Caesars −5.5 -115 +5.5 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 231.5 -110 231.5 -110
BetRivers 231.5 -108 231.5 -113
DraftKings 231.5 -110 231.5 -110
ESPN BET 231.5 -110 231.5 -110
Fanatics 232 -110 232 -110
FanDuel 231.5 -110 231.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 231.5 -110 231.5 -110
Caesars 231 -110 231 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Indiana PacersBrooklyn Nets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 65.7% 34.3%
Best book price incl. vig 65.5% 34.7%
Kalshi contract price 67.2% 32.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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