Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder

All Los Angeles Clippers predictions · All Oklahoma City Thunder predictions

NBA · Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 7:10 PM · Final: 101-108

The model's call
Oklahoma City Thunder to win
Model confidence 89.4%
Books consensus 89.4%
Result Oklahoma City Thunder won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles ClippersOklahoma City Thunder
BetMGM +800 -1400
BetRivers +700 -1250
DraftKings +800 -1350
ESPN BET +800 -1600
Fanatics +800 -1300
FanDuel +810 -1350
Hard Rock Bet +850 -1600
Novig +852 -900
Caesars +800 -1400

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Thunder −16.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened Thunder −14.5
Los Angeles Clippers covered +16.5
Total · closing
O/U 223.5
priced 50.0% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 221.5
Under 223.5 (209 scored)
Spread by book ClippersThunder
BetMGM +16.5 -110 −16.5 -110
BetRivers +16.5 -115 −16.5 -106
DraftKings +16.5 -112 −16.5 -108
ESPN BET +16.5 -110 −16.5 -110
Fanatics +16 -110 −16 -110
FanDuel +16.5 -110 −16.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet +16.5 -110 −16.5 -110
Caesars +16 -105 −16 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 223.5 -110 223.5 -110
BetRivers 223.5 -106 223.5 -115
DraftKings 223.5 -108 223.5 -112
ESPN BET 223.5 -110 223.5 -110
Fanatics 223 -110 223 -110
FanDuel 223.5 -110 223.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 223.5 -110 223.5 -110
Caesars 223 -110 223 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles ClippersOklahoma City Thunder
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 10.6% 89.4%
Best book price incl. vig 10.5% 90.0%
Kalshi contract price 10.5% 89.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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