Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Toronto Raptors at Minnesota Timberwolves

All Toronto Raptors predictions · All Minnesota Timberwolves predictions

NBA · Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 7:14 PM · Final: 94-117

The model's call
Minnesota Timberwolves to win
Model confidence 59.1%
Books consensus 59.1%
Result Minnesota Timberwolves won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Toronto RaptorsMinnesota Timberwolves
BetMGM +135 -160
BetRivers +133 -165
DraftKings +140 -166
ESPN BET +130 -150
Fanatics +135 -165
FanDuel +134 -158
Hard Rock Bet +135 -160
Novig +138 -141
Caesars +135 -160

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Timberwolves −3.5
priced 50.5% to cover · 8 books
opened Timberwolves −2.5
Minnesota Timberwolves covered −3.5
Total · closing
O/U 228.5
priced 50.0% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 232.5
Under 228.5 (211 scored)
Spread by book RaptorsTimberwolves
BetMGM +3.5 -110 −3.5 -110
BetRivers +3.5 -112 −3.5 -110
DraftKings +3.5 -105 −3.5 -115
ESPN BET +3.5 -105 −3.5 -115
Fanatics +3.5 -110 −3.5 -110
FanDuel +3.5 -105 −3.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet +3.5 -110 −3.5 -110
Caesars +3.5 -105 −3.5 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 228.5 -110 228.5 -110
BetRivers 229.5 -108 229.5 -113
DraftKings 228.5 -112 228.5 -108
ESPN BET 228.5 -110 228.5 -110
Fanatics 228.5 -110 228.5 -110
FanDuel 228.5 -110 228.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 228.5 -115 228.5 -105
Caesars 229 -110 229 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Toronto RaptorsMinnesota Timberwolves
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 40.9% 59.1%
Best book price incl. vig 41.7% 58.5%
Kalshi contract price 40.9% 59.1%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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