Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Orlando Magic at New York Knicks

All Orlando Magic predictions · All New York Knicks predictions

NBA · Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 7:09 PM · Final: 111-102

The model's call
New York Knicks to win
Model confidence 69.8%
Books consensus 69.8%
Result Orlando Magic won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Orlando MagicNew York Knicks
BetMGM +220 -275
BetRivers +215 -275
DraftKings +220 -270
ESPN BET +215 -260
Fanatics +210 -260
FanDuel +215 -260
Hard Rock Bet +220 -275
Novig +228 -233
Caesars +228 -285

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Knicks −6.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 3 books, 5 on another number
opened Knicks −7.5
Orlando Magic covered +6.5
Total · closing
O/U 224.5
priced 50.0% over · 8 books
Under 224.5 (213 scored)
Spread by book MagicKnicks
BetMGM +7.5 -115 −7.5 -105
BetRivers +6.5 -113 −6.5 -108
DraftKings +6.5 -105 −6.5 -115
ESPN BET +6.5 -110 −6.5 -110
Fanatics +7 -110 −7 -110
FanDuel +7.5 -114 −7.5 -106
Hard Rock Bet +7.5 -110 −7.5 -110
Caesars +7 -110 −7 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 224.5 -110 224.5 -110
BetRivers 224.5 -107 224.5 -114
DraftKings 224.5 -112 224.5 -108
ESPN BET 224.5 -110 224.5 -110
Fanatics 224.5 -110 224.5 -110
FanDuel 224.5 -105 224.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 224.5 -110 224.5 -110
Caesars 224.5 -110 224.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Orlando MagicNew York Knicks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 30.2% 69.8%
Best book price incl. vig 30.5% 70.0%
Kalshi contract price 30.2% 69.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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